Tuesday, July 15, 2008

US Presence in the Republic of Georgia is Russia's God Send

How is this so? Well, dear reader, it's actually quite simple. The Bush regime, through yet another stupid and mindless diplomatic disaster (a common thread over the past 8 years) has now given implicit guaranties to Georgia's megalomaniac dictator that the mouse may take on the bear and the eagle, no matter how starved or stretched, will come to save it.

At first glance, this seems like a bad political position to be in, that and the military exercises on Russia's borders with Ukraine definitely seem to support the theory. But, when seen from the prism of asymmetric warfare, this is a great opportunity to strike the opponent where he is weakest.

First, the economic front. Georgia lies on the Baku-Cyphan oil pipeline, which delivers most of Azerbajani oil to market. The greater Caucus region is also home to 3 Russian pipelines that equally bring Russian, Kazakhstani and Uzebekistani gas and oil to market. The fact that Ukraine is also a massive transit for gas and oil to Europe and the Black Sea is now home to the Blue Stream gas line to southern Europe and Turkey, is a perfect reason to play up the potential hostilities in this region. Russian news should have a field day until the fact breaks through on Wall Street.

Now Washington has not only put Iran, the 4th largest oil producer under the gun and thus the Straits of Harmouz where 25% of the world's oil passes, but it has escalated tensions to the brink of war with Russia in regions that carry an addition 10-15% of the world's oil and well over 25% of the world's gas. For this reason alone, there should be an addition of 20% to the price of crude and gas. Oil should soon be heading into the $170 range or beyond and gas not far behind.

This threat alone should be enough to tear the EU's ailing heart out and could easily tip it the rest of the way into full blown recession. The various leaders of the EU are not stupid or blind, with the exception of the present Polish, Czech and Baltic leaders, of course, and will do everything they can to calm the situation, including getting as far away from Bush the Mad and his idiocies as possible.

Furthermore, America as a whole, with Iraq still a hot bed of violence, Afghanistan exploding to Iraq's levels and Iran paranoid enough to strike first, can not, with it's military stretched so thin, hold all these lines and give any kind of actual guarantee to Georgia. Of course the world's dieing hegemon will try...that's what insanity is all about, trying the impossible, failing miserably and never having to take responsibility. To that degree, the US military will be that much more pinned down to the point where the whole of the Farse on Terror and thus the legacy of Bush will be close to utter collapse.

Meanwhile, with the US economy in recession, the added pressures will tip it further still, eventually to the point where the atheist Trotskyte Marxists who run the One Party Two Branch American political system, will no longer be able to afford it's military-industrial complex.

Thus a defunct NATO will finally go the way of the Warsaw Pact, 17 years later than it should have.

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